Bout DrawAdvantage/Disadvantage for Team Bouts

Posted: November 5, 2017 in Uncategorized

Before this year’s festival I was asked if I had ever run the numbers to work out how big an advantage or disadvantage a team had based on their bout draw.

I had run numbers for individual slams to try and quantify score creep – a study that led to discontinuing the process of reading scores from low to high, which while not eliminating score creep, greatly reduced its effect.

I am looking at the numbers only from this year’s festival, which is not nearly enough to make any significant assumptions. I will save these results and next year add further data points to see if any conclusions can be born out.

The problem with so few samples (14 bouts), is that there are too many other variables that can skew the results. For example, what if the best teams going into the festival all happened to draw the A/D spots? They would make it seem that this was the best draw to get because those team did better.

Which is exactly what the numbers appear to show. Contrary to what many would suspect, the best spot to draw according to this year’s data is Team A, who go first and last in the bout.
We combine a draw of A with a draw of D to ‘balance’ the bout draw, but this year D was the 2nd best spot. In fact, if the data stays consistent across multiple years, we should switch the ‘balanced’ draw so that a team that draws A also gets a C spot, as that appears to be the worst position.

Average finish based on Bout Draw this year:

A – 2.214
B – 2.643
C – 2.714
D – 2.429

As said, this is not enough data to draw strong conclusions, but I will continue to watch the results.

 

I also ran the individual numbers across all spots in each bout to see if there is a strict advantage based on the bout rotation.

The only clear advantage that can be found in that is appears that there is an advantage to be in the D slot in the first rotation. That matches what we already know about score creep. There does not appear to be a strong correlation between results and position in any other individual spot in any of the four rotation spots.

Interestingly, based on these 14 bouts, the team that goes last in the last rotation (Team A) seems to be at a disadvantage in that rotation, which goes against general theories about score creep.

My speculation based on the various numbers in the study is that there IS an advantage to drawing the D spot, but there is no strong difference between A, B, or C. I will continue to track the numbers to find out.

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s